The Next General Election #GE2019

Well, it's one of those weeks whereby I don't really have much to blog about, considering this week has been quite light on the policy-related news, and nothing much really has happened in my personal life. Had to really dig in deep to find a topic worth discussing, at the risk of sounding like I'm "blogging for the sake of it". I remembered that in my post on the National Day Rally, I mentioned that elections will happen next year, which I will justify in this post.

The next General Elections in Singapore is one that will be historic. This will be the last General Election that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will lead the ruling PAP into. While he is highly expected to lead the PAP to a victory, the margin of victory to the PAP will reflect on the confidence Singaporeans have on the next generation of leaders, led by PM Lee's successor.

While the GE is due to be held by January 2021, many speculate that the GE will happen in 2020, subject to no global crisis such as a financial crisis or an outbreak of terrorism. The PAP will hold on to its power for this sitting of parliament for 5 years (unlike their previous term of slightly more than 4 years). However, I strongly believe that the next GE will be held early, and we are looking at a GE as early as mid 2019.

My reasons are as follows:

1) The hype over the next Prime Minister

It all started at the beginning of 2018, when Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong mentioned a timeline for the next generation of leaders to decide on a leader and come public by the end of the year. The younger generation mentioned that they were "aware of their responsibility". Through the year, a lot has been said about the identity over the next Prime Minister, be it Minister of Finance Heng Swee Keat, Minister of Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing, or Minister of Education Ong Ye Kung. The speculation would likely come to a close during the PAP internal election for its Central Executive Committee (CEC) at the end of the year, with the selected incoming PM to take a top role. 

Once the identity of the next PM is known, elections are bound to be called soon to test the confidence of the electorate in the PM-"select". It is unwise for the ruling government to hold off dissolving parliament unless there is a national crisis, since the battlefield would already be ready, also nodding to the fact that the Worker's Party has elected a new Secretary General, Mr Pritam Singh. If the PAP holds off the election, PM Lee may be accused of holding on to power unnecessarily, also remembering his spate of ill health recently.

2) Singapore's bicentennial is in 2019

It would be 200 years since Singapore was founded by Sir Stanford Raffles and William Farquah in 1819. It has already been published in the news that activities will be planned to mark this significant milestone in Singapore's development. While I personally do not see the point in celebrating such an occasion, since Singapore's development really started in 1965, perhaps it is appropriate to commemorate and reflect on such an occasion instead.

2015 was the SG50 year, whereby the good feeling in Singaporeans from all the celebrations throughout the year contributed to the outstanding performance by the PAP in the elections. I predict that something similar will happen next year, whereby the celebrations of the bicentennial will carry out and end off with a PAP electoral victory.

3) The Merdeka Generation Package

Also drawing parallels back to the GE2015, the Pioneer Generation Package (PGP) was released in that year's budget. It proved to be of significant help to the elder generation in Singapore, who up till then were often left out of government policies, since the government was focusing on immigration and education since the disastrous GE2011 results. The PGP was also likely to be a reason for a big swing towards the PAP at that GE.

The Merdeka Generation Package (MGP) was announced by PM Lee in his National Day Rally this year, which is to be rolled out next year. The package, set to help those currently in their 60s to transition smoothly into their retirement, bearing in mind they missed out on the PGP, hence this age group (and their children) are likely to be thankful to the government. It is hence likely the PAP government will set the election for next year.

4) The Workers' Party's lawsuit and the State Media

Win or lose, the Workers' Party (WP) is likely to take a hit to their credibility due to their recent lawsuit. The Aljunied-Hougang Town Council is suing the 3 top members of the Workers' Party (which is a sinister spinoff of "Ownself Check Ownself" and "Ownself Sue Ownself"). The Workers' Party almost lost their "crown jewel" of Aljunied GRC in GE2015 due to the lapses found in the running of their town council. The current lawsuit, which began recently, is set to conclude only next year, and they are also pending another lawsuit from the Pasir Ris-Punggol Town Council, which manages Punggol East SMC, helmed by former MP Lee Li Lian from 2013-2015.

Even if the Workers' Party does not take a financial loss from the lawsuit, their public image will be tattered. The PAP government would then be strategic in having the election held next year, taking advantage of an already-crippled WP while they are dealing with lawsuits and public backlash.

We can also note that not only has state media been putting WP in a bad light due to the lawsuits, they also are subtly attacking the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) by writing negatively on their member's private actions (such as John Tan, who did not represent the SDP). With the state media going on the offensive, it can be concluded that they are trying to swing confidence towards the government ahead of the next GE.

5) The time difference between the 30% Water Tax Hike, Presidential Election, and the increase in GST

The unpopular hike in water tax by 30% happened some time in 2017, which generated quite a lot of backlash due to the sudden increase and lack of forewarning. In 2017, there was also the Presidential Election, where President Halimah Yacob became President without any competition, since her 2 competitors were disqualified. This also resulted in the public having souring views against the government, the public being of the opinion that the election was "engineered" to have "one of their own to become president".

This year, the GST was announced to be increasing from 2021 onwards. Since Singaporeans have to pay more, of course they won't be happy. 

2019 is the year in between these 2 controversial years (2017 and 2021). It'll be the year that the effects of the Water Tax Hike and Presidential Election have died down, and the public is not too concerned of the upcoming GST hike yet (since they will be distracted by the bicentennial celebrations). The GST hike will be a contest point in the GE, but certainly the effect will not be as strong shall it be held in 2020.

In conclusion, many factors point to the next GE being held next year, 2019, instead of 2020. Although the current government could choose to maximize their term, it wouldn't be wise as an election in 2019 could bring a wider electoral victory, since the PAP is highly likely to win anyways.

Let me know what are your views on the next GE! Feel free to comment below!