The Next General Election #GE2019 (Part 2)

I first blogged about the timing of the next General Election about more than 3 months ago. For those who are new or did not read my initial post, one can view the post at https://thecwtheorems.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-next-general-election-ge2019.html. In the post, I predicted that the next General Elections in Singapore will be held this year, year 2019. This is in spite of most election cycles being full 5 years, with the exception of the 2001 and 2015 General Elections. 

In summary, I have not changed my view that the next General Election will be held this year. In fact, in light of recent developments, there is more evidence that the General Elections will be held this year. I will discuss these developments in this post.

Firstly, the Elections Department started training 30,000 public servants who have been appointed as Election Officials for the next GE. In fact, these officials have started training since the second half of last year. In the last GE, public officials received notification of their appointments about a year before the GE. I believe something similar will happen this time round, which means that the GE can be expected to be called somewhere in the second half of this year.

Secondly, recently, Singapore celebrated its bicentennial (200 years) since Sir Stanford Raffles' arrival in Singapore on January 29 200 years ago. Although the commemoration was without much fanfare, in fact even I was not aware that the commemoration had started on Jan 29, it marks the start of a year long commemoration, where there will certainly be feel-good moments and government sponsored goodies, which could be expected as early as the upcoming Budget 2019 to mark the occasion and encourage Singaporeans to reflect on the development of the country over the last 20 years. I am expecting something similar, albeit slightly toned down, to the SG50 celebrations in 2015, which led to the GE2015, where the PAP had a large margin of victory.

Thirdly, just yesterday, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong spoke about the Merdeka Generation Package (MGP), which was first introduced in his National Day Rally last year. While PM Lee did not introduce anything new on the package, he did certainly generate some hype over it. From what we know, the receipients of the package are born in the 1950s (the ones who grew up with the nation), and will be receiving "substantial" health benefits. He also revealed that more of the MGP will be revealed by PM-designate and Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat and Health Minister Gan Kim Yong during the next few weeks. I suspect that the details will be revealed during the Budget debate later this month. This also draws parallels with 2015, where the Pioneer Generation Package was introduced to much fanfare during the Budget and the National Day Rally, and arguably was a pull factor towards the PAP.

Next, one would note that the electoral boundaries of East Coast GRC has been revised to include Pedra Branca, as revealed by PM Lee in the Government Gazette. This is certainly a political move, as Singapore has been awarded Pedra Branca by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), with Malaysia dropping their case to challenge the 2008 verdict just last year. Although I'm very sure no one lives on Pedra Branca (hence there is no need for a polling station on rocks with a few tall structures), the redrawing of the boundaries should show that elections are coming soon. Furthermore, the register of electors will be up for inspection in the next 2 weeks, which also signifies elections could be sooner rather than later. The last time the list was made available for public inspection, it was in preparation for the Presidential Election in 2017 (which turned out to be a Walkover, but oh wells). More information on this development can be read at this link https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/east-coast-electoral-division-pedra-branca-general-election-11194120.

It is also interesting to note that the opposition in Singapore are also getting ready for the next General Election. They too, believe that the General Elections could be held soon. For example, former MP and Presidential candidate Tan Cheng Bock has recently filed for application for his new party, the Progress Singapore Party (PSP). Lawyer Lim Tean has also successfully applied for his new party, People's Voice. Tan Cheng Bock met up with PM Lee's estranged brother, Lee Hsien Yang, on the day PM Lee spoke about the MGP, in Ang Mo Kio (coincidentally or otherwise, PM Lee's electoral ward). The Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) has also announced that they are starting their campaign towards the next GE on 23 February. The leader of the nation's largest opposition party, the Worker's Party (WP), Pritam Singh, has also mentioned that the WP should be aiming for one-third of parliament seats in the mid-term.

It is indeed an exciting time for Singapore politics.

However, I do not expect the GE to be anytime very soon. I still suspect it will be held towards the end of the year, perhaps in October or early November (before the start of the School Holidays, avoiding the national exams). Or if my guessing skills are unfortunate, it could be in January next year. The reason why I think it will not be held in the immediate future is because various government agencies have been under scrutiny recently. MINDEF and SAF are under fire for the spate of NSF and NSMen deaths in the last few years. The MOHH is having a Public Relations crisis for the leak of HIV Positive patient information last week. Singpost is also being heavily criticized for the lack of professionalism in their postmen, in light of cases in the last few months of postmen throwing away letters, or underperforming by not delivering registered mail properly. The government is unlikely to call for elections so soon, not until at least these pressing matters at hand have been solved, and public sentiments have cooled down, and maybe lifted by the Singapore Bicentennial celebrations and the MGP.

Therefore, I hold that the GE should be held towards the end of 2019, most probably in October or early November.

It's definitely going to be an interesting few months ahead. I feel the mood in Singapore now is rather grave given a recent spate of unfortunate incidents. Hopefully it lightens up soon. The only things that keep us going now are Chinese New Year and the epic Go-Jek kindapping allegation story.

And no, it's not because I'm Chinese.