Singapore's Next Prime Minister and the new PAP CEC

The news of the People's Action Party (PAP) Central Executive Committee (CEC) deciding on their new 1st Assistant Secretary General (1ASG) and 2ASG came out in the middle of my trip to Bangkok last week. While I had a few other topics to blog about, I knew that this had to be prioritized immediately as it is one of Singapore's most "in" current affairs recently.

For the uninitiated (really, can you be uninitiated about this?) but more importantly a recap, the group of 4th Generation (4G) leaders of the PAP, consisting of 4G ministers and Members of Parliament (MPs), have decided on Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat as the 1ASG of the PAP CEC, with Minister of Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing as the 2ASG. In other words, this means that Heng Swee Keat is the Prime Minister-Designate once PM Lee Hsien Loong steps down, which could be very soon after the next General Elections (predicted to be held next year, as I've predicted in a previous post).

Before I continue on my views of the development, I would like to debunk a myth that was brought forward by quite a number of my peers and netizens. Many have brought up that Former President Tony Tan Keng Yam was selected as 1ASG in the PAP CEC back in 1980, whereas the post of 2ASG was bestowed upon Goh Chok Tong, who went on to become Singapore's 2nd Prime Minister, succeeding Founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew. They are of view that there is no confirmation that the 1ASG of the CEC will become the next PM.

While such analysis of history does substantiate their point, I beg to differ. During the press conference of the 4G leaders, Heng Swee Keat has pointed out that the 4G leaders have asked him to become their leader, and thereafter he points out that he asked Chan Chun Sing to be his deputy, which the latter accepted. The Prime Minister of each batch of leaders has always been the leader, the first among equals of the batch. There is no way that this batch of leaders will have Chan Chun Sing catapult to the seat of Prime Minister, barring any unexpected circumstances, as they have chosen Heng Swee Keat as their leader.

Therefore, I am of opinion that Heng Swee Keat will definitely be the next Prime Minister, again barring any unexpected circumstances.

However, whether the Heng will be a "Seat Warmer", a charge regularly unfairly directed at Goh Chok Tong (as he was the Prime Minister between the father-son duo of Lee Kuan Yew and Lee Hsien Loong), remains to be seen. Maybe he could be "warming" the seat for Chan Chun Sing, or perhaps another younger rising leader? As not enough details have surfaced on this matter, I will not speculate further.

Back to the topic of PM-designate Heng Swee Keat, I am first and foremost happy and welcoming of his designation. He has proven to be a hardworking and responsible minister, having brought in great policies during his time as Education Minister, and continues to deal with the tough and demanding nature of a Finance Minister. He also shows traits of being a consultative leader, a trait demanded for the post of PM since ex-PM Goh's time, having steered the Our Singapore Conversation initiative.

However, while I am indeed happy for his designation, I was, and am still, very much surprised. Like many, I thought that it was certain that Chan Chun Sing would become the next Prime Minister. There were simply too many reasons that pointed to Chan instead of Heng, of which I will explain below.

First and foremost, it's the age difference of Chan and Heng. Heng is currently 57 years old, while Chan is 49. That makes a rather mammoth 8 years difference. While it is customary to elect the eldest as a leader, we should look deeper into the implications of such a decision. When PM Lee retires, it'll be another 2-3 years later. Heng will be already 60, whereas Chan will be 52. Lee Kuan Yew stepped down from PM at 67, Goh at 64, and PM Lee Hsien Loong will step down before 70. Both Goh and PM Lee have had terms of around 15 years. Assuming Heng takes the role at 60, if he follows in the footsteps of his predecessors, he will serve until 75, which is a tad bit old, unlike Chan who can serve till he's 67, which is more average. While I do not think that Heng's age will implicate his performance, for he is indeed very capable, a Prime Minister beyond retirement age may not sit well with the electorate, further exacerbated by rumours of the retirement age of the Central Prominent Fund (CPF) being increased further.

It would also not be wise to have Heng step down at 70, for he would've served PAP as Prime Minister for only 2 election cycles, and there may be even more talks of him being a "seat warmer" rather than an effective Prime Minister. 

Secondly, Heng's health must've also been considered during the selection of the next PM. Many would know that Heng suffered a stroke during a cabinet meeting in 2016, striking concerns if he could handle the stress of a Prime Minister. One must note in that very year, PM Lee had a bout of fainting spell and collapsed on stage during the National Day Rally. Indeed, the role of a PM does take its toll on one's body, and requires one to be in excellent physical condition to be able to keep going. Again, I am not doubting Heng's ability to serve as PM, for he is indeed deserving of the role, but certainly there must've been concerns if he could keep up his energy till he's 75.

Thirdly, while certainly capable, Heng did not really look the role of Prime Minister as much as Chan. Please note that this is a more personal view rather than one substantiated with hard facts. Heng comes across as a calm, quiet, yet firm and confident speaker during his speeches in parliament. On the other hand, Chan comes across with more charisma and is stronger in the delivery of his speeches. Chan, while naturally cheerful, can be combative if provoked and has the voice to defend Singapore's interest, owing to his military background. If I were to compare, Chan mimicks Lee Kuan Yew to a slight extent, while Heng would be the most soft spoken of all PMs. While the current criteria for a PM is to be consultative, it is important for a leader to have the fire and energy in his speech to convince the electorate and fight off opposition. Yet again, this probably wont be a problem for Heng, as he will likely get better with more practice and experience.

However, there are certainly also reasons why Heng would be selected as the leader of the 4G leaders.

Perhaps a strong reason would be due to Heng's popularity and Chan's lack of it. As Heng is a consultative leader and is soft spoken, he has the ability to connect with the ground, exemplified by the performance of Tampines GRC in the 2015 General Elections and the outpouring of support from netizens and his constituency during his health ailment in 2016, and the heavy congratulations for him when announced as PM-designate online. 

Chan, on the other hand, may unfortunately come across as more combative and elitist. While he does try his best to interact with the ground and produces good quality work and speeches, he is not as welcomed as Heng. Many netizens criticize him online, citing his lack of touch and military expereince as reasons why they do not support him. Perhaps his lesser popularity as compared to Heng costed him the position of the next PM. 

I was still mildly surprised that the 4G leaders chose Heng instead of Chan, as the PAP government, while aiming to be consultative, is certainly not populist. In other words, they prioritize what they think is good for the country instead of what the electorate thinks. This is shown through many policies which did not run well with the electorate, such as the Elected Presidency, the revised changes in CPF, and increase in GST.

However, perhaps for this case the 4G leaders can afford to listen to the electorate instead of solely the facts at hand, since the next General Election (and more) could be a "referendum" of what Singaporeans think of their next PM. Furthermore, if I have interpreted the ministers correctly, who the PM is is not as pressing as how strong the leadership team is. The PM serves in the team as a leader, but will not be the only one making the decisions - that's up to the cabinet to decide, not one man alone. The PM instead takes more of an ambassador role, be it representing the cabinet to parliament and Singapore, or representing Singapore at a global stage.

In conclusion, above I have summarized my views on why Heng Swee Keat is confirmed as the next PM, why I was surprised, but also managed to reconcile and explain why Heng would've been the better choice instead of Chan.

Whether I am right, and whether PAP indeed has the right team to lead Singapore moving forward, however, remains to be seen.

But we'll see it soon, at the ballot box next year.